[time-nuts] Re: disciplning natural phenomena

[Tom Van Baak]

I've attached the ADEV plot from 11 years of Old Faithful data (2001 to 
2011).

For the data and also a deep dive into geyser statistics see this 
wonderful article:

http://www.stat.yale.edu/~jah49/Pictures_in_R/Fickle_Old_Faithful/OldFaithful.pdf

These papers might also be interesting to you:

"Triggering and modulation of geyser eruptions in Yellowstone National 
Park by earthquakes, earth tides, and weather"
https://digitalcommons.lsu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2191&context=geo_pubs

"A Look at Some Data on the Old Faithful Geyser"
https://doi.org/10.2307/2347385

"Model for the eruption of the Old Faithful geyser, Yellowstone National 
Park"
https://www.geosociety.org/gsatoday/archive/23/6/pdf/i1052-5173-23-6-4.pdf

"A History of the Old Faithful Area with Chronology, Maps, and Executive 
Summary"
http://npshistory.com/publications/yell/old-faithful-area-history.pdf

For current and recent information see:

https://www.geysertimes.org/geyser.php?id=Old+Faithful
https://www.geysertimes.org/data.php
https://www.geysertimes.org/analysis.php
https://www.geysertimes.org/map.php

And of course there's a webcam:

https://yellowstone.net/geysers/old-faithful/
https://yellowstone.net/geysers/old-faithful-webcam/

/tvb


On 4/1/2022 6:09 AM, Lux, Jim wrote:
> As I re-read Fleming's "You Only Live Twice" last night, which 
> features a geyser that is "regulated" by a valve of some sort I was 
> intrigued by this idea:
>
> Can one discipline a geyser to an external source?
>
> a) I assume there's some data somewhere on eruption timing - sure, Old 
> Faithful is quite regular, sufficiently that they can say "the next 
> eruption will occur at" and people will gather and watch it. But 
> what's the ADEV? As a kid in the early 70s, I didn't think to ask this 
> question, and neither Allan nor Leeson seem to mention it in their 
> papers from 1966.  There is a lot of variation in timing performance 
> of various geysers, though.  Old Faithful *is* regular, and in a place 
> where it's watchable.
>
> b) Are periodic geysers actually regulatable ?- From the little I know 
> about how they work, I would think the eruption frequency depends on 
> things like the water temperature and flow. It's also possible that 
> the valve in Fleming's novel is purely fictional, because it serves as 
> part of a plot device at the end (much like closing off the safety 
> valve on a boiler).
>
> Or, are geysers an example of a chaotic system that is only seemingly 
> regular in some sense? That is, it's not like a VCO, with a consistent 
> and well defined relation between the control input and the period. 
> Changing the control input may change the period in an unpredictable 
> way. Some geysers stop working if the surrounding hydrology changes. 
> Or is that simply that the Q of the oscillator is so high that it's 
> easy to "get out of operating range".  That would be like trying to 
> discipline a spurious parasitic oscillation in an amplifier.

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