[time-nuts] Spoofing GPS

DaveH info at blackmountainforge.com
Wed Jun 27 02:44:56 UTC 2012


Report title:

Safety Considerations for Operation of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles in the
National Airspace System
Weibel, Roland E; Hansman, R. John

Link is here:

http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/34912

2005 so a bit behind current state of art but what municipalities are going
to pony up for the latest technology...

Dave 

> -----Original Message-----
> From: time-nuts-bounces at febo.com 
> [mailto:time-nuts-bounces at febo.com] On Behalf Of Jim Lux
> Sent: Tuesday, June 26, 2012 15:59
> To: time-nuts at febo.com
> Subject: Re: [time-nuts] Spoofing GPS
> 
> On 6/26/12 3:38 PM, J. Forster wrote:
> > Whether it's spoofing or jamming, domestic drones are 
> becoming ubiquitous,
> > because they are just so tempting, and sooner or later one 
> is gonna crash
> > onto a populated area, either by accident or deliberate mischief.
> >
> > A piloted aircraft may be able to avoid hitting a school; a 
> drone may not.
> >
> >
> That *is* the significant problem with non-government UAVs.  
> All fine to 
> run them over the desert on the southern border or out over 
> the Mojave. 
>   By and large, UAV failures, as you note, don't have the option of 
> doing a Great Santini.
> 
> The  (catastrophic) failure rate of UAVs is something like 
> 100 or 1000 
> times higher than for military piloted craft, which in turn 
> is something 
> like 100 or 1000 times that for civilian craft.
> 
> I did some calculations last year, and if Los Angeles decided 
> to put up 
> a UAV 24/7 to replace things like helicopters, we could 
> expect a crash 
> into the city about once a week.
> 
> The MQ-9 Reaper and RQ-1 Predator have a reported Class A 
> mishap rate of 
> about 10 per 1000 flight hours...  Class A = >$1M in damage 
> or death.. 
> bear in mind that if a $500k drone augers in out in the 
> desert, that's 
> not a Class A mishap.
> 
> So, 1 year is about 8760 hours, so we could expect 87.6 Class A 
> mishaps/year if the LAPD decided to fly the current flavor of 
> UAV.  Yes, 
> that would create some interesting news stories.  How long 
> til we see a 
> tailfin with LAPD sticking out of an elementary school a'la Cerritos.
> 
> For comparison, in around 2000-2005, the commercial accident rate was 
> about 0.01 per 100k hours.  The Air Force reported about 1 per 100k 
> hours.  General aviation is 10/100k hours.  (these are non-specific 
> "accidents", so they aren't directly comparable to Class A mishaps)
> 
> There's a great report from MIT on this.. google for Weibel 
> ICAT report 
> UAV safety
> 
> 
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