[time-nuts] Re: disciplning natural phenomena

[Bob kb8tq]

Hi

Well, specific to Old Faithful ….

They look at the current eruption and rate it for height and duration. 
Based on that rating, they make a guess about the wait for the next 
one. Their guess is typically a +/- 10 minute sort of thing. Very much 
like predicting the weather. 

https://www.nps.gov/yell/planyourvisit/geyser-activity.htm <https://www.nps.gov/yell/planyourvisit/geyser-activity.htm>

Bob

> On Apr 1, 2022, at 9:09 AM, Lux, Jim <jim at luxfamily.com> wrote:
> 
> As I re-read Fleming's "You Only Live Twice" last night, which features a geyser that is "regulated" by a valve of some sort I was intrigued by this idea:
> 
> Can one discipline a geyser to an external source?
> 
> a) I assume there's some data somewhere on eruption timing - sure, Old Faithful is quite regular, sufficiently that they can say "the next eruption will occur at" and people will gather and watch it.  But what's the ADEV? As a kid in the early 70s, I didn't think to ask this question, and neither Allan nor Leeson seem to mention it in their papers from 1966.  There is a lot of variation in timing performance of various geysers, though.  Old Faithful *is* regular, and in a place where it's watchable.
> 
> b) Are periodic geysers actually regulatable ?- From the little I know about how they work, I would think the eruption frequency depends on things like the water temperature and flow. It's also possible that the valve in Fleming's novel is purely fictional, because it serves as part of a plot device at the end (much like closing off the safety valve on a boiler).
> 
> Or, are geysers an example of a chaotic system that is only seemingly regular in some sense? That is, it's not like a VCO, with a consistent and well defined relation between the control input and the period. Changing the control input may change the period in an unpredictable way. Some geysers stop working if the surrounding hydrology changes. Or is that simply that the Q of the oscillator is so high that it's easy to "get out of operating range".  That would be like trying to discipline a spurious parasitic oscillation in an amplifier.
> 
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